Crime and security futures

Other crime and security futures pages cover topics in depth:

The importance and nature of crime and security futures work

  • The Internet markets the products etc and disseminates the know-how behind them
  • New targets for crime emerge – e.g. smartphones
  • New environments for crime emerge, like cash machines
  • New niches for crime promoters emerge – e.g. re-chipping stolen mobiles
  • New patterns of socialisation create, or have the potential to reduce, risk and protective factors for criminality
  • New living conditions and life circumstances create new motivation to offend, and new conflicts
  • New tools and information become available for offenders to use, e.g. the extensive misuse and misbehaviour that has emerged with drones. Or a humbler example, the adaptive ‘Gator grip’ universal socket wrench, which at a stroke renders obsolete those crime resistant fittings that were anchored by unusually-shaped bolts, and greatly reduces the toolkit that thieves may need to carry

The application of the Crime Frameworks to crime and security futures work

Using the Misdeeds and Security Framework

Using the Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity Framework

Using the 5Is Framework

Using the Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity, and Misdeeds and Security Frameworks together

In horizon-scanning, one way of forecasting the future is to rely on causal models derived, ideally, from tested theoretical mechanisms, and/or broader causal principles. We can thus use the full set of causal factors identified within Crime Science, to envisage how changes in these can change the frequency, distribution or nature of criminal events. And we can go on to consider the ’causes of the causes’. For example, how can future changes in PESHTELOMI domains affect criminals’ readiness to offend or the availability of resources for offending such as tools or weapons?

Drones can be used as an example to show how the CCO and Misdeeds and Security Frameworks can be applied to futures work.

Using the CCO and 5Is Frameworks together

Evolutionary approaches to crime and security

Publications and presentations on crime and security futures

Publications

Presentations